| Monday, Apr 03, 2023 - NCAA Basketball Game | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
| 711 | San Diego State | +6.5 | -110 | Ov | 129.5 | -110 | |||||||||||||||||||
| 712 | Connecticut | -6.5 | -110 | Un | 129.5 | -110 |
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Aztecs are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss.
Aztecs are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win.
Aztecs are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games.
Aztecs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 NCAA Tournament games.
Aztecs are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Aztecs are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 Monday games.
Aztecs are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games overall.
Aztecs are 15-5-2 ATS in their last 22 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
Huskies are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Huskies are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
Huskies are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games.
Huskies are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games overall.
Huskies are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 NCAA Tournament games.
Huskies are 21-7-1 ATS in their last 29 games following a straight up win.
Huskies are 18-7-2 ATS in their last 27 games following a ATS win.
Under is 4-0 in Aztecs last 4 games following a ATS loss.
Under is 8-1 in Aztecs last 9 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Under is 13-3 in Aztecs last 16 games following a straight up win.
Over is 4-1 in Aztecs last 5 Monday games.
Under is 4-1 in Aztecs last 5 NCAA Tournament games.
Under is 17-5 in Aztecs last 22 overall.
Under is 27-9 in Aztecs last 36 neutral site games.
Under is 7-1 in Huskies last 8 games following a ATS win.
Under is 7-1 in Huskies last 8 games following a straight up win.
Under is 9-2 in Huskies last 11 Monday games.
Under is 7-2 in Huskies last 9 overall.
Under is 6-2 in Huskies last 8 neutral site games.
Under is 5-2 in Huskies last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Aztecs are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win.
Aztecs are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games.
Aztecs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 NCAA Tournament games.
Aztecs are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Aztecs are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 Monday games.
Aztecs are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games overall.
Aztecs are 15-5-2 ATS in their last 22 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
Huskies are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Huskies are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
Huskies are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games.
Huskies are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games overall.
Huskies are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 NCAA Tournament games.
Huskies are 21-7-1 ATS in their last 29 games following a straight up win.
Huskies are 18-7-2 ATS in their last 27 games following a ATS win.
Under is 4-0 in Aztecs last 4 games following a ATS loss.
Under is 8-1 in Aztecs last 9 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Under is 13-3 in Aztecs last 16 games following a straight up win.
Over is 4-1 in Aztecs last 5 Monday games.
Under is 4-1 in Aztecs last 5 NCAA Tournament games.
Under is 17-5 in Aztecs last 22 overall.
Under is 27-9 in Aztecs last 36 neutral site games.
Under is 7-1 in Huskies last 8 games following a ATS win.
Under is 7-1 in Huskies last 8 games following a straight up win.
Under is 9-2 in Huskies last 11 Monday games.
Under is 7-2 in Huskies last 9 overall.
Under is 6-2 in Huskies last 8 neutral site games.
Under is 5-2 in Huskies last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
HOUSTON -- The trap has been set for the fourth-seeded UConn Huskies.
Prior to the start of the Final Four, the Huskies were installed as prohibitive favorites to claim their fifth national title, a total that would match Duke and Indiana for the fourth most in NCAA Tournament history behind UCLA (11), Kentucky (eight) and North Carolina (six).
The Huskies earned that tag in part because the three other participants -- San Diego State, Miami and Florida Atlantic -- were all making their first Final Four appearances and because UConn rolled into NRG Stadium having won each of its Tournament games by double digits
UConn did little to dispel the notion that it is a runaway train with its thorough, 72-59 dispatching of the Hurricanes in the second national semifinal on Saturday. And now, with the fifth-seeded Aztecs standing between UConn and history, the Huskies are leery of the hype.
"The heavy favorites haven't fared very well in this one," UConn coach Dan Hurley said. "So we're just going to try to ignore that tag. I just think it helps us a lot just what we went through in January. We know that if we get away from our identity for a tick, we become very vulnerable."
After opening the season 14-0, the Huskies (30-8) dropped six of eight games, a slump that both exposed their vulnerabilities and reinforced how UConn has to perform in order to maximize its ample talent. Maintaining its identity includes sourcing points from numerous options offensively, notably via junior forward Adama Sanogo and sophomore guard Jordan Hawkins, while also committing to a brand of defense that is effective if not overlooked by the masses.
What UConn did in stifling Gonzaga and Miami, top-six ranked offenses according to KenPom.com ratings, should not be discounted in any analysis of their title odds. The Huskies held the Bulldogs and Hurricanes to a combined 32.8 percent shooting, and their defensive preparation for the Aztecs (32-6) is foremost in their minds. San Diego State is physical and determined, and UConn is well aware.
"I would say guarding the ball one-on-one and being able to guard the ball screens," Huskies junior guard Andre Jackson Jr. said. "And the way they're going to be ducking in our bigs, making sure we cut off those drives and not let them get points at the rim, also keeping them off the offensive glass and defense rebound the ball."
The Huskies are third in offensive efficiency, according to KenPom. With a multitude of shooters around Sanogo and guards capable of attacking the rim and forcing defenses to collapse, UConn could serve as a stern test for the Aztecs. San Diego State's brute force and deep collection of grizzled seniors complement its exacting defensive prep.
"Obviously we have to control them in transition," Aztecs coach Brian Dutcher said. "They're as good a 3-point shooting team in transition that we've played all year.
"And the 3-point shot ... it's such a weapon. We have to take way transition threes. We have to do a good job in the low post on Sanogo. He's strong and tough."
No one would question the Aztecs' mental fortitude. Lamont Butler sent them to Monday with his buzzer-beater against FAU, but San Diego State set the stage for his game-winner by doing the things that have come to represent its identity, namely defend and crash the offensive glass.
Their hometown has embraced everything the Aztecs are. One more win would set off a party.
"It's an awesome feeling to see that the whole city has our back no matter what happens," Butler said. "And we're going to keep doing it for them. We love them. We need their support and we're going to keep going."
Prior to the start of the Final Four, the Huskies were installed as prohibitive favorites to claim their fifth national title, a total that would match Duke and Indiana for the fourth most in NCAA Tournament history behind UCLA (11), Kentucky (eight) and North Carolina (six).
The Huskies earned that tag in part because the three other participants -- San Diego State, Miami and Florida Atlantic -- were all making their first Final Four appearances and because UConn rolled into NRG Stadium having won each of its Tournament games by double digits
UConn did little to dispel the notion that it is a runaway train with its thorough, 72-59 dispatching of the Hurricanes in the second national semifinal on Saturday. And now, with the fifth-seeded Aztecs standing between UConn and history, the Huskies are leery of the hype.
"The heavy favorites haven't fared very well in this one," UConn coach Dan Hurley said. "So we're just going to try to ignore that tag. I just think it helps us a lot just what we went through in January. We know that if we get away from our identity for a tick, we become very vulnerable."
After opening the season 14-0, the Huskies (30-8) dropped six of eight games, a slump that both exposed their vulnerabilities and reinforced how UConn has to perform in order to maximize its ample talent. Maintaining its identity includes sourcing points from numerous options offensively, notably via junior forward Adama Sanogo and sophomore guard Jordan Hawkins, while also committing to a brand of defense that is effective if not overlooked by the masses.
What UConn did in stifling Gonzaga and Miami, top-six ranked offenses according to KenPom.com ratings, should not be discounted in any analysis of their title odds. The Huskies held the Bulldogs and Hurricanes to a combined 32.8 percent shooting, and their defensive preparation for the Aztecs (32-6) is foremost in their minds. San Diego State is physical and determined, and UConn is well aware.
"I would say guarding the ball one-on-one and being able to guard the ball screens," Huskies junior guard Andre Jackson Jr. said. "And the way they're going to be ducking in our bigs, making sure we cut off those drives and not let them get points at the rim, also keeping them off the offensive glass and defense rebound the ball."
The Huskies are third in offensive efficiency, according to KenPom. With a multitude of shooters around Sanogo and guards capable of attacking the rim and forcing defenses to collapse, UConn could serve as a stern test for the Aztecs. San Diego State's brute force and deep collection of grizzled seniors complement its exacting defensive prep.
"Obviously we have to control them in transition," Aztecs coach Brian Dutcher said. "They're as good a 3-point shooting team in transition that we've played all year.
"And the 3-point shot ... it's such a weapon. We have to take way transition threes. We have to do a good job in the low post on Sanogo. He's strong and tough."
No one would question the Aztecs' mental fortitude. Lamont Butler sent them to Monday with his buzzer-beater against FAU, but San Diego State set the stage for his game-winner by doing the things that have come to represent its identity, namely defend and crash the offensive glass.
Their hometown has embraced everything the Aztecs are. One more win would set off a party.
"It's an awesome feeling to see that the whole city has our back no matter what happens," Butler said. "And we're going to keep doing it for them. We love them. We need their support and we're going to keep going."
Here is how how the public is betting on this game at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Spread: UConn -7.5 (80% of handle, 73% of bets)
Total: 132.5 (44% of handle, 80% of bets on over)
Moneyline: UConn -390, SDSU +320 (56% of handle for UConn, 59% of bets for UConn)
Since yesterday’s betting splits, we’ve seen a pretty significant increase in the percentage of the bets and handle for San Diego State moneyline, which will provide winners a much more handsome payoff than a successful UConn ML bet. However, over half of bettors are still riding with UConn there. There was a slight decrease in bettors and handle for UConn covering the spread.
But perhaps the most interesting change is in the total betting. Yesterday, 70% of the cash wagered and 81% of wagers placed were on the over. Today, the percentage of bets on the over has barely moved, but the percentage of the handle placed on the over has dropped under 50%. A few major bettors are throwing a lot of money toward the under.
UConn vs. San Diego State
Spread: UConn -7.5 (80% of handle, 73% of bets)
Total: 132.5 (44% of handle, 80% of bets on over)
Moneyline: UConn -390, SDSU +320 (56% of handle for UConn, 59% of bets for UConn)
Since yesterday’s betting splits, we’ve seen a pretty significant increase in the percentage of the bets and handle for San Diego State moneyline, which will provide winners a much more handsome payoff than a successful UConn ML bet. However, over half of bettors are still riding with UConn there. There was a slight decrease in bettors and handle for UConn covering the spread.
But perhaps the most interesting change is in the total betting. Yesterday, 70% of the cash wagered and 81% of wagers placed were on the over. Today, the percentage of bets on the over has barely moved, but the percentage of the handle placed on the over has dropped under 50%. A few major bettors are throwing a lot of money toward the under.
The UConn Huskies and San Diego State Aztecs will face off Monday night from NRG Stadium in Houston for the chance to make history.
After one of the most exciting tournaments in recent memory, it all comes down to the NCAA championship game as the Aztecs look to win their first title, while UConn looks to secure its first in nine years. The Huskies have won each of their previous four appearances in the title game (1999, 2004, 2011 and 2014).
Doug Kezirian: If I had to play it, I would lay the points. UConn just looks too formidable on both ends. The Huskies have enough size to prevent the Aztecs from dominating the boards and creating extra possessions. Offensively, they have multiple guys who can shoot from distance, and their polished half-court offense creates plenty of opportunities for Adama Sanogo on the blocks. It's one game, the point spread is quite high, and the Aztecs have found a way to grind out wins, so it's hard to envision them losing convincingly. But UConn has covered every game in this tourney. I am passing, but UConn probably covers.
Jeff Borzello: I lean toward what Doug said. The spread feels really solid, but if it goes one way, I think it would be UConn covering. Because of the way San Diego State plays -- low number of possessions, game played mostly in the half-court -- the Aztecs should be able to stay in the game regardless. UConn has won all 16 of its games against non-Big East opponents by double digits, while San Diego State has lost only one game by double-digits -- and that was at the Maui Invitational back in late December. But the Huskies are built to win at different tempos, their defense is operating at an incredibly high level right now and Andre Jackson will be able to not only neutralize Matt Bradley but jump-start their transition game.
Tyler Fulghum: I would lay the points with UConn ... but also think there is some value in attacking the team totals. UConn's offense has scored 70-plus points in every game it has played in this tournament. Despite San Diego State's physically imposing defense, I think the Huskies can dictate the tempo and game script and go over 69.5 points.
Joe Fortenbaugh: UConn -7. No reason to deboard this train now. The Huskies have won their five tournament matchups by an average of 20.6 points. San Diego State just knocked down 50 percent of their 3-pointers in that come-from-behind win over Florida Atlantic. Do we see that happening again for a team that shot below the national average from 3-point range during the season? I think not. Look for UConn's free throw shooting to be the difference in this one.
Erin Dolan: I'd have to lay the points with the Huskies. UConn was immediately bet up for a reason. The Huskies have covered every game in this tournament. The Huskies have covered every game in this tournament, beating the spread by an average of 16 PPG, which is the second-best mark by any team entering the national title game since 1985. UConn ranks in the top 10 in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency. San Diego State has a great defense, but that crumbled in the first half against Florida Atlantic, helping snap the Aztecs' 12-game under streak.
After one of the most exciting tournaments in recent memory, it all comes down to the NCAA championship game as the Aztecs look to win their first title, while UConn looks to secure its first in nine years. The Huskies have won each of their previous four appearances in the title game (1999, 2004, 2011 and 2014).
UConn opened as 7-point favorites over San Diego State and has dominated its opponents throughout the tournament. What are your thoughts on the total and spread and how do you see this game playing out?
Doug Kezirian: If I had to play it, I would lay the points. UConn just looks too formidable on both ends. The Huskies have enough size to prevent the Aztecs from dominating the boards and creating extra possessions. Offensively, they have multiple guys who can shoot from distance, and their polished half-court offense creates plenty of opportunities for Adama Sanogo on the blocks. It's one game, the point spread is quite high, and the Aztecs have found a way to grind out wins, so it's hard to envision them losing convincingly. But UConn has covered every game in this tourney. I am passing, but UConn probably covers.
Jeff Borzello: I lean toward what Doug said. The spread feels really solid, but if it goes one way, I think it would be UConn covering. Because of the way San Diego State plays -- low number of possessions, game played mostly in the half-court -- the Aztecs should be able to stay in the game regardless. UConn has won all 16 of its games against non-Big East opponents by double digits, while San Diego State has lost only one game by double-digits -- and that was at the Maui Invitational back in late December. But the Huskies are built to win at different tempos, their defense is operating at an incredibly high level right now and Andre Jackson will be able to not only neutralize Matt Bradley but jump-start their transition game.
Tyler Fulghum: I would lay the points with UConn ... but also think there is some value in attacking the team totals. UConn's offense has scored 70-plus points in every game it has played in this tournament. Despite San Diego State's physically imposing defense, I think the Huskies can dictate the tempo and game script and go over 69.5 points.
Joe Fortenbaugh: UConn -7. No reason to deboard this train now. The Huskies have won their five tournament matchups by an average of 20.6 points. San Diego State just knocked down 50 percent of their 3-pointers in that come-from-behind win over Florida Atlantic. Do we see that happening again for a team that shot below the national average from 3-point range during the season? I think not. Look for UConn's free throw shooting to be the difference in this one.
Erin Dolan: I'd have to lay the points with the Huskies. UConn was immediately bet up for a reason. The Huskies have covered every game in this tournament. The Huskies have covered every game in this tournament, beating the spread by an average of 16 PPG, which is the second-best mark by any team entering the national title game since 1985. UConn ranks in the top 10 in adjusted offensive and defensive efficiency. San Diego State has a great defense, but that crumbled in the first half against Florida Atlantic, helping snap the Aztecs' 12-game under streak.
| ||||||
| 89234 | Adam Sanogo (UCONN) | -150 | - | |||
| 89235 | Jordan Hawkins (UCONN) | +225 | ||||
| 89238 | Matt Bradley (SDSU) | +450 | ||||
| 89241 | Lamont Butler (SDSU) | +850 | ||||
| 89237 | Darrion Trammell (SDSU) | +2500 | ||||
| 89244 | Tristen Newton (UCONN) | +5000 | ||||
Who will win, and why?
Borzello: UConn is operating at such a high level right now, it's hard to see the Huskies losing Monday night. San Diego State does pose a difficult matchup, given how good the Aztecs are defensively and how they impose their physicality and tempo on opponents. But I think UConn is built to win in a variety of ways. Its defense against Gonzaga and Miami the past two games has been incredible, holding two top-five offenses to their worst games of the season. Their offense is obviously fantastic; they have size on the interior, shooters on the perimeter and confident playmakers at the point of attack. They can win this game at either end of the floor, at any tempo.
Score prediction: UConn 67, San Diego State 60
Gasaway: Dan Hurley's team is going to win because history says that's what happens next. Up until Virginia's string of very close wins in the 2019 tournament, there was a robust streak of national champions who outscored their first five tournament opponents by a larger margin than the teams they faced in the title game. There are other recurring indicators. This will sound strange, but every national champion for the past 20 years was ranked in the top 12 of that season's Week 6 AP poll. This year, UConn falls into that category. Also, 17 of the past 20 champions were in KenPom's top six on Selection Monday. The Huskies check that box as well. Finally, Jordan Hawkins will be healthy and Andre Jackson Jr. isn't going to miss two first halves in a row with foul trouble. However, if all of the above should fall to pieces and No. 4-seeded UConn loses to No. 5 San Diego State, the magnitude of the upset will be vastly overstated. Any team that can dispense with Alabama is capable of beating the Huskies.
Score prediction: UConn 72, San Diego State 61
Medcalf: I think San Diego State's defensive pressure is a real thing. This is a team full of solid, experienced athletes. I think the physical edge UConn has had won't be as pronounced as it has been throughout the NCAA tournament. But it's important to remember the Huskies have played incredible defense through this dominant run. San Diego State's come-from-behind win over Florida Atlantic featured a multitude of missed free throws and jump shots. The Huskies can turn a hot-and-cold offensive team into a frozen offensive team. Plus, the best way to beat a great defense is to play over the top of it. And UConn can do that with Clingan and Sanogo. They're explosive in transition and dangerous from the 3-point line, too. The Huskies can win in so many ways.
Score prediction: UConn 74, San Diego State 64
Lunardi: Fool me once ... I went with Miami in a Final Four upset because this tournament seemed destined to end unexpectedly. So much for that idea. In this matchup, I just don't see how San Diego State can score enough to knock off this UConn juggernaut. The Huskies can beat you in so many ways, and they'll happily win the title game in whatever manner the Aztecs dictate. Whether it's 60-50 or 85-75, the Huskies are at least 10 points better than SDSU and will win their fifth crown fairly comfortably.
Score prediction: UConn 71, San Diego State 59
Borzello: UConn is operating at such a high level right now, it's hard to see the Huskies losing Monday night. San Diego State does pose a difficult matchup, given how good the Aztecs are defensively and how they impose their physicality and tempo on opponents. But I think UConn is built to win in a variety of ways. Its defense against Gonzaga and Miami the past two games has been incredible, holding two top-five offenses to their worst games of the season. Their offense is obviously fantastic; they have size on the interior, shooters on the perimeter and confident playmakers at the point of attack. They can win this game at either end of the floor, at any tempo.
Score prediction: UConn 67, San Diego State 60
Gasaway: Dan Hurley's team is going to win because history says that's what happens next. Up until Virginia's string of very close wins in the 2019 tournament, there was a robust streak of national champions who outscored their first five tournament opponents by a larger margin than the teams they faced in the title game. There are other recurring indicators. This will sound strange, but every national champion for the past 20 years was ranked in the top 12 of that season's Week 6 AP poll. This year, UConn falls into that category. Also, 17 of the past 20 champions were in KenPom's top six on Selection Monday. The Huskies check that box as well. Finally, Jordan Hawkins will be healthy and Andre Jackson Jr. isn't going to miss two first halves in a row with foul trouble. However, if all of the above should fall to pieces and No. 4-seeded UConn loses to No. 5 San Diego State, the magnitude of the upset will be vastly overstated. Any team that can dispense with Alabama is capable of beating the Huskies.
Score prediction: UConn 72, San Diego State 61
Medcalf: I think San Diego State's defensive pressure is a real thing. This is a team full of solid, experienced athletes. I think the physical edge UConn has had won't be as pronounced as it has been throughout the NCAA tournament. But it's important to remember the Huskies have played incredible defense through this dominant run. San Diego State's come-from-behind win over Florida Atlantic featured a multitude of missed free throws and jump shots. The Huskies can turn a hot-and-cold offensive team into a frozen offensive team. Plus, the best way to beat a great defense is to play over the top of it. And UConn can do that with Clingan and Sanogo. They're explosive in transition and dangerous from the 3-point line, too. The Huskies can win in so many ways.
Score prediction: UConn 74, San Diego State 64
Lunardi: Fool me once ... I went with Miami in a Final Four upset because this tournament seemed destined to end unexpectedly. So much for that idea. In this matchup, I just don't see how San Diego State can score enough to knock off this UConn juggernaut. The Huskies can beat you in so many ways, and they'll happily win the title game in whatever manner the Aztecs dictate. Whether it's 60-50 or 85-75, the Huskies are at least 10 points better than SDSU and will win their fifth crown fairly comfortably.
Score prediction: UConn 71, San Diego State 59
ESPN.COM
